A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Rainfall Fluctuations on Rural Poverty in Iran

Abstract. A large part of the countrychr('39')s poor live in the villages of this land and are engaged in agriculture and related jobs. Climate changes will have a significant impact on their lives by changing the amount of rainfall. To plan for a proper response to these climate changes, it is necessary to first properly analyze and explain the effects of this change. In this study, we decided to measure the effect of rainfall fluctuations on rural poverty in the period 1361-92. The statistical population of this article consists of people living in rural areas of the country. Due to the fact that dealing with poverty is a long-term issue, ARDL analysis has been used in econometrics. The results confirm the positive relationship between rural poverty and rainfall fluctuations. In addition, this study underestimates the relationship between rural poverty and facilities to the agricultural sector, which indicates the inefficiency of the funds, allocated for the provision of facilities in this sector.